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Shamit Dua's avatar

First throw turnovers are statistically most likely because first throws are the most common throws. Much in the same way car accidents are much more likely to take place nearby your place of residence.

I can't estimate the distribution but it wouldn't be surprising if it were logarithmic in shape.

Does feel like there's a bit of survivorship bias at play here. But I do agree with the overall premise of rejecting the work around or hero feeling and embracing the simple stuff.

Abi's avatar

Agree with basically all of the article! Just one question: is this not considered an easy throw in your mind? https://www.youtube.com/live/VECI6-nS96Y?t=1851&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Maybe I'm not aware of the wind conditions, but an unguarded throw to the force side(?, the mark seems flat at best) seems like low hanging fruit (compared to the doublewide bravo examples that were somewhat defended). Maybe the cutter should have come a little shallower to give an easier option if it was very windy

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