Here are some predictions for 2021. I wrote most of this article in the last week of May and first week of June, and then I took a hiatus from writing and/or worked on other writing projects for the last couple months. So consider these my predictions as of June 1, 2021. (Hopefully starting in 2022 I will publish predictions at the start of the year).
Some of the predictions have already come true — I can hold my breath for 120 seconds, I've run a mile faster than 5:50, and I've run a 10x200 workout faster than 33 seconds. But the fact that a prediction I gave >50% chance to came true doesn't mean that I was "right" — if anything, I was under-confident and should've given these a higher probability. On the other end of the spectrum, the covid Delta variant is making my covid-related predictions look bad — Rhode Island had case numbers in the high teens to low twenties in the end of June to beginning of July, but now is back up to ~300 cases per day. Perhaps cases will drop again sharply before the end of the year, but that seems unlikely and I think my case number predictions are looking pretty bad.
If there's anything you'd like to see me predict for next year, let me know!
Athletics
1, 2. I will be able to hold my breath for at least [120, 180] seconds: [80%, 25%]
3, 4, 5. I will spend at least [10, 20, 60] days injured (i.e., unable to work out or play sports due to an injury): [70%, 30%, 5%]
6, 7, 8. I will run a mile at or faster than [5:50, 5:40, 5:30]: [90%, 60%, 20%]
9, 10, 11. The Providence pickup frisbee email list will have at least [300, 350, 400] people: [99%, 80%, 10%]
12. I will be able to dunk a basketball: 5%
13, 14. I will run a 10x200 workout faster than [33, 32] seconds: [80%, 30%]
Job, friends, personal life
15. I will have a new full time or near-full time job: 15%
16, 17, 18, 19. My net worth will be at least [A, B, C, D]: [80%, 50%, 20%, 5%]
20, 21, 22. I will spend at least [18K, 20K, 24K] this year: [80%, 40%, 1%]
23. I will still be studying Chinese flash cards daily: 99%
24. I will have a study partner to practice speaking Chinese with: 10%
25. I will buy a new computer or smartphone: 20%
26. I will become a consistent commenter in an online community: 20%
27. I will still be living in my current apartment: 80%
28. I will have at least one new roommate: 85%
29. [Friend X] will have moved to [Place Y]: 65%
30. [Friend X] will have moved to [Place Y]: 30%
31, 32. I will newly chat with at least [2, 5] people on Signal: [70%, 20%]
33, 34, 35. I will find out [Couple A, Couple B, Couple C] are pregnant: [10%, 5%, 5%]
Writing
36, 37. I will publish at least [10, 15] book reviews: [80%, 50%]
38, 39, 40, 41. A blog post will have at least [20, 50, 100, 200] views: [70%, 20%, 10%, 5%]
42, 43. I will publish at least [5, 10] blog posts that aren't book reviews: [60%, 20%]
Covid
44, 45. Rhode Island will have a month where the average cases per day is less than [20, 10]: [80%, 50%]
46. I will get a COVID booster shot: [5%]
47. Rhode Island will have increased COVID restrictions again: [15%]
Dude I love this